Israel’s biggest threat right now?

So Iran’s nuclear program has a few more years, giving Israel a little breathing room, and the Palestinians aren’t attacking, for now at least. Apparently, Israeli Arabs are even more scared by terror attacks than Israeli Jews, meaning that Israel doesn’t need to worry so much about internal terror – for now at least.

There’s even a brief respite in the North – Hizballah has just decided to pull out of the ruling coalition in Lebanon and so collapse the Lebanese government:

Lebanon’s year-old unity government collapsed Wednesday after Hizbullah ministers and their allies resigned over tensions stemming from a UN-backed tribunal investigating the 2005 assassination of former Lebanese prime minister Rafik Hariri.

The walkout ushers in the country’s worst political crisis since 2008 in one of the most volatile corners of the Middle East.

The tribunal was widely expected to name members of Hizbullah in upcoming indictments, which many fear could re-ignite sectarian tensions that have plagued the tiny country for decades.

This is terrible for Lebanon, which is looking more and more likely to go into a civil war. As Hizballah is the most powerful military force in Lebanon, the only way that it would not win the civil war would be for other countries to intervene, turning the civil war into a regional war, which would not be fun for anyone.

That said, until that happens, Hizballah is probably too pre-occupied with Lebanon to start attacking Israel (unless they decide to attack Israel as a distraction, as explained here).

So point is, no one is really shooting at Israelis right now. So what’s the problem? Well Israel Beitenu has just decided to set-up a Knesset committee to investigate a few left-wing NGOs because apparently they are trying to “stop the IDF from doing their job”. This is bad, whichever way you look at it – singling out NGOs who disagree with their specific agenda makes a mockery of everything people like me have been saying about free speech in Israel. In fact, in response to some members of ruling right-wing party Likkud voting against the idea, Beitenu head Avigdor Lieberman said:

”When I saw people from the right vote together with [Arab MPs] Ahmed Tibi and Haneen Zoabi, it was a strange spectacle.”

This is 100% true, but not for the reason Lieberman thinks. It says a lot more about the proposal than Likkud – it’s not even that it’s right wing, it’s just a really bad idea. It also reflects really badly on Israel, it’s crazy that a man who would push this kind of thing through so blindly is actually supposed to be Foreign Minister – representing Israel to the world. In fact, he’s doing a really bad job of it. Just as Israel was mending relationships with Turkey, a key ally, Lieberman ran his mouth and ruined it all; he also undermines everything the rest of Israel is saying about trying to reach peace by saying that it is not possible.

Netanyahu responds to all this by saying that Liberman is “entitled to his own opinion” and rightly pointing-out that despite his title, Lieberman’s ideas are his own and are not Israeli policy. The problem is, Netanyahu feels that he can’t drop Lieberman from the coalition and take the centrist Kadima instead, since then Likkud would be seen as moving left and Beitenu would become the party of the right.

And I mentioned the Israeli Arabs before. Problem is, there are a bunch of rabbis who are trying to stop them from being able to buy land from Jews. This is understandably causing a very bad reaction amongst them. It also again makes Israel look awful and undermines the idea of Israel being an equal society with human rights. The Haredi (ultra-orthodox) community just lives in a different world – they don’t serve in the IDF, they have extremely high rates of unemployment and poverty and they have a warped world view. Of course, this is the view of a minority and is not Israeli policy, but try explaining that to someone who is prejudiced against Israel already. Also, if current demographic trends continue, Israeli Arabs and Haredi Jews will make up the majority of Israel’s population later this century; if current social trends continue, Israel may look a lot like Lebanon at that point.

It’s really difficult to see a way out of the current situation, but one thing is clear – in this period of relative calm, the biggest threat to Israel is probably from within. I have no idea how these problems could be solved.

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